What we would do
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a 4-year window, every season without a ring is a wasted chance. Nothing obvious is missing: the job is keeping the core healthy and getting to May in one piece.
Deadline buyerVery likely
Projects to 62.5 wins: built to compete now.
Can offer 3 first-round picks (2029, 2030, 2031).
Extension comingVery likely
Cason Wallace is finishing his rookie deal and producing: he needs to be locked up before he reaches the market.
On the radar
Miles BridgesPHX22.8 M · expiring contract, produces above his salary
Tre JonesCHI8.0 M · signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL5.4 M · expiring contract, produces above his salary
Possible trade
No trade that works under the rules right now: either nobody can absorb those salaries, or it has nothing to offer without breaking itself apart.
Full profile
Core
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (27), Chet Holmgren (23), Isaiah Hartenstein (27)
Assets
Chet Holmgren (worth 12.9 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Ajay Mitchell (worth 11.7 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Jaylin Williams (worth 4.4 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Cason Wallace (worth 8.8 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27)
Dead weight
Alex Caruso (overpaid by 12.8 M, through 2028-29)
Expiring contracts
Nobody relevant
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
2029 (≈ 3.6 M), 2030 (≈ 3.9 M), 2031 (≈ 4.2 M) · 5 from other teams, 2 swaps
Distance to each line
15.7 M over the tax · 7.1 M over the 1st apron · 5.5 M under the 2nd apron
What we would do
With Victor Wembanyama and a 4-year window, every season without a ring is a wasted chance. Nothing obvious is missing: the job is keeping the core healthy and getting to May in one piece.
Deadline buyerVery likely
Projects to 60.5 wins: built to compete now.
Can offer 1 first-round pick (2029).
Has 25.5 M in expiring contracts to match salaries.
Extension comingVery likely
Stephon Castle is finishing his rookie deal and producing: he needs to be locked up before he reaches the market.
On the radar
Tre JonesCHI8.0 M · signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Deandre AytonWSH8.1 M · expiring contract, produces above his salary
Royce O'NealeCHA10.9 M · signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Victor Wembanyama (22), Luke Kornet (30), De'Aaron Fox (28)
Assets
Victor Wembanyama (worth 23.1 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Stephon Castle (worth 16.1 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Luke Kornet (worth 9.5 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Julian Champagnie (worth 4.1 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29)
Dead weight
De'Aaron Fox (overpaid by 24.8 M, through 2029-30)
Expiring contracts
Keldon Johnson (17.5 M), Harrison Barnes (8.0 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
2029 (≈ 3.7 M) · 1 from other teams, 5 swaps
Distance to each line
2.1 M under the tax · 10.7 M under the 1st apron · 23.4 M under the 2nd apron
What we would do
With Jalen Brunson and a 3-year window, every season without a ring is a wasted chance. Nothing obvious is missing: the job is keeping the core healthy and getting to May in one piece. The problem is the second apron: only one-for-one deals, no salary aggregation.
Deadline buyerLikely
Projects to 52.5 wins: built to compete now.
But it is over the second apron: it cannot aggregate salaries in a trade, only one-for-one swaps.
Get under the second apronLikely
It is 6.1 M over: its 2031 pick is frozen and its hands are tied in trades.
A contender can live with it for one year; two in a row gets very expensive.
On the radar
Jordan GoodwinPHX5.9 M · signed through 2028-29, produces above his salary
Saddiq BeyNO6.4 M · signed through 2029-30, produces above his salary
Kris DunnLAC5.7 M · expiring contract, produces above his salary
Jose Alvarado (worth 5.6 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Josh Hart (worth 7.8 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Miles McBride (worth 4.5 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Andre Drummond (worth 5.8 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27)
Dead weight
None
Expiring contracts
Nobody relevant
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
None· 0 from other teams, 1 swaps· the 2031 one, frozen by the 2nd apron
Distance to each line
27.3 M over the tax · 18.7 M over the 1st apron · 6.1 M over the 2nd apron
Tyrese Maxey (25), Jaylen Brown (29), LeBron James (41)
Assets
LeBron James (worth 24.2 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · VJ Edgecombe (worth 5.4 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Tyrese Maxey (worth 4.3 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Dominick Barlow (worth 6.0 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27)
Dead weight
Jaylen Brown (overpaid by 26.0 M, through 2028-29)
Expiring contracts
Nobody relevant
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
2027 (≈ 3.9 M) · 0 from other teams, 4 swaps
Distance to each line
12.7 M over the tax · 4.2 M over the 1st apron · 8.5 M under the 2nd apron
What we would do
Jayson Tatum is one step short, and those steps are bought in February. With 3 firsts to offer, it is one of the teams that can move the market most.
Deadline buyerVery likely
Projects to 50.5 wins: built to compete now.
Can offer 3 first-round picks (2027, 2030, 2031).
Clean up the booksLikely
Spends 203.9 M and is in the luxury tax.
It is only 3.5 M over the tax: one minor move gets it out.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
On the radar
Tre JonesCHI8.0 M · signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL5.4 M · expiring contract, produces above his salary
Royce O'NealeCHA10.9 M · signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Neemias Queta (26), Payton Pritchard (28), Derrick White (31)
Assets
Payton Pritchard (worth 31.8 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Neemias Queta (worth 14.1 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Jordan Walsh (worth 5.4 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Baylor Scheierman (worth 7.2 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28)
Dead weight
None
Expiring contracts
Nobody relevant
Bargains (careful trading them)
Payton Pritchard (paid 7.8 M, produces like 39.8 M)
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
Paul George (54.1 M, 2 years)
Firsts it can offer
2027 (≈ 3.8 M), 2030 (≈ 4.2 M), 2031 (≈ 4.6 M) · 2 from other teams, 4 swaps
Distance to each line
3.5 M over the tax · 5.1 M under the 1st apron · 17.8 M under the 2nd apron
What we would do
Cade Cunningham is one step short, and those steps are bought in February. With 3 firsts to offer, it is one of the teams that can move the market most.
Deadline buyerVery likely
Projects to 49.5 wins: built to compete now.
Can offer 3 first-round picks (2027, 2029, 2031).
On the radar
Tre JonesCHI8.0 M · signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Jordan GoodwinPHX5.9 M · signed through 2028-29, produces above his salary
Toumani CamaraPOR18.1 M · signed through 2029-30, produces above his salary
Jalen Duren (worth 22.6 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Javonte Green (worth 13.9 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Daniss Jenkins (worth 10.2 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Isaiah Joe (worth 5.6 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28)
Dead weight
None
Expiring contracts
Nobody relevant
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
2027 (≈ 4.0 M), 2029 (≈ 4.2 M), 2031 (≈ 4.9 M)
Distance to each line
7.3 M under the tax · 15.8 M under the 1st apron · 28.5 M under the 2nd apron
What we would do
It wants to take the leap around Anthony Edwards, but has no picks to offer. Its currency is expiring contracts (12.5 M): useful veterans for salaries that run out.
Deadline buyerVery likely
Projects to 48.5 wins: built to compete now.
Has 12.5 M in expiring contracts to match salaries.
Clean up the booksLikely
Spends 215.3 M and is over the first apron.
LaMelo Ball is paid more than he produces.
It is 14.9 M over the tax, and every extra million costs another one and a half or more in penalties.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
On the radar
Saddiq BeyNO6.4 M · signed through 2029-30, produces above his salary
Kris DunnLAC5.7 M · expiring contract, produces above his salary
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL5.4 M · expiring contract, produces above his salary
Rudy Gobert (33), Anthony Edwards (24), LaMelo Ball (24)
Assets
Rudy Gobert (worth 13.9 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · John Konchar (worth 5.5 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Bones Hyland (worth 9.4 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Donte DiVincenzo (worth 11.1 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27)
Dead weight
LaMelo Ball (overpaid by 9.8 M, through 2028-29)
Expiring contracts
Donte DiVincenzo (12.5 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
None· 0 from other teams, 8 swaps
Distance to each line
14.9 M over the tax · 6.3 M over the 1st apron · 6.4 M under the 2nd apron
What we would do
It wants to take the leap around Donovan Mitchell, but has no picks to offer. What is left is the cheap-veteran market and the March buyouts. If a salary has to go into the package, Peyton Watson's would hurt the least.
Deadline buyerLikely
Projects to 48.5 wins: built to compete now.
Clean up the booksLikely
Spends 209.3 M and is over the first apron.
Peyton Watson and Evan Mobley are paid more than they produce.
It is 8.9 M over the tax, and every extra million costs another one and a half or more in penalties.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
On the radar
Tristan Da SilvaORL4.0 M · signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Jordan GoodwinPHX5.9 M · signed through 2028-29, produces above his salary
Jordan MillerLAC5.3 M · signed through 2028-29, produces above his salary
Donovan Mitchell (29), James Harden (36), Evan Mobley (24)
Assets
James Harden (worth 7.5 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Jaylon Tyson (worth 6.9 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Craig Porter Jr. (worth 9.3 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27)
Dead weight
Peyton Watson (overpaid by 12.1 M, through 2029-30) · Evan Mobley (overpaid by 11.4 M, through 2029-30) · Jarrett Allen (overpaid by 12.3 M, through 2028-29)
Expiring contracts
Nobody relevant
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
None· 0 from other teams, 8 swaps
Distance to each line
8.9 M over the tax · 0.3 M over the 1st apron · 12.4 M under the 2nd apron
What we would do
Amen Thompson is one step short, and those steps are bought in February. With 2 firsts to offer, it is one of the teams that can move the market most. If a salary has to go into the package, Tari Eason's would hurt the least.
Deadline buyerVery likely
Projects to 47.5 wins: built to compete now.
Can offer 2 first-round picks (2028, 2030).
Has 25.0 M in expiring contracts to match salaries.
Extension comingVery likely
Reed Sheppard is finishing his rookie deal and producing: he needs to be locked up before he reaches the market.
Clean up the booksLikely
Spends 205.5 M and is in the luxury tax.
Tari Eason is paid more than he produces.
It is 5.1 M over the tax, and every extra million costs another one and a half or more in penalties.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
On the radar
Royce O'NealeCHA10.9 M · signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Naji MarshallDAL9.4 M · signed through 2029-30, produces above his salary
Saddiq BeyNO6.4 M · signed through 2029-30, produces above his salary
Kevin Durant (37), Amen Thompson (23), Alperen Şengün (23)
Assets
Alperen Şengün (worth 19.2 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Amen Thompson (worth 16.1 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Jabari Smith Jr. (worth 12.9 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Reed Sheppard (worth 7.2 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28)
Dead weight
Tari Eason (overpaid by 9.0 M, through 2029-30)
Expiring contracts
Fred VanVleet (25.0 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
2028 (≈ 4.7 M), 2030 (≈ 5.4 M) · 1 from other teams, 3 swaps
Distance to each line
5.1 M over the tax · 3.5 M under the 1st apron · 16.2 M under the 2nd apron
Kawhi Leonard (34), Scottie Barnes (24), Immanuel Quickley (26)
Assets
Scottie Barnes (worth 12.0 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Jamal Shead (worth 4.3 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Ja'Kobe Walter (worth 5.3 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28)
Dead weight
None
Expiring contracts
RJ Barrett (29.6 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
RJ Barrett (29.6 M, final year)
Firsts it can offer
2028 (≈ 5.0 M)
Distance to each line
2.1 M over the tax · 6.5 M under the 1st apron · 19.1 M under the 2nd apron
What we would do
It wants to take the leap around Luka Dončić, but has no picks to offer. What is left is the cheap-veteran market and the March buyouts. If a salary has to go into the package, Jarred Vanderbilt's would hurt the least.
Deadline buyerLikely
Projects to 45.5 wins: built to compete now.
Clean up the booksLikely
Spends 201.3 M and is in the luxury tax.
Austin Reaves and Jarred Vanderbilt are paid more than they produce.
It is only 0.9 M over the tax: one minor move gets it out.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
On the radar
Jock LandaleATL14.1 M · expiring contract
Tre JonesCHI8.0 M · signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Deandre AytonWSH8.1 M · expiring contract, produces above his salary
What we would do
It wants to take the leap around Giannis Antetokounmpo, but has no picks to offer. Its currency is expiring contracts (12.4 M): useful veterans for salaries that run out.
Deadline buyerVery likely
Projects to 45.5 wins: built to compete now.
Has 12.4 M in expiring contracts to match salaries.
Clean up the booksLikely
Spends 210.5 M and is over the first apron.
Bam Adebayo is paid more than he produces.
It is 10.1 M over the tax, and every extra million costs another one and a half or more in penalties.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
On the radar
Tristan Da SilvaORL4.0 M · signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Jordan GoodwinPHX5.9 M · signed through 2028-29, produces above his salary
Jordan MillerLAC5.3 M · signed through 2028-29, produces above his salary
Bam Adebayo (28), Giannis Antetokounmpo (31), Andrew Wiggins (30)
Assets
Dru Smith (worth 9.3 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Simone Fontecchio (worth 7.0 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Tim Hardaway Jr. (worth 5.5 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Davion Mitchell (worth 4.9 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27)
Dead weight
Bam Adebayo (overpaid by 11.0 M, through 2028-29)
Expiring contracts
Davion Mitchell (12.4 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
None
Distance to each line
10.1 M over the tax · 1.5 M over the 1st apron · 11.2 M under the 2nd apron
No man's landNot good enough to win, not bad enough to start over
43.5projected wins
24.3years, core age
4years of window
198.5 Mover the cap
Summer cap space
What we would do
The worst place in the league: too good for a high pick, too short for a ring. Either it goes all in with Onyeka Okongwu and picks for a star, or it sells.
Will hit free agency with cap spaceLikely
It has 140.3 M committed for next season: about 36.2 M under the cap (estimated).
Expensive free agents can only go to teams with space or via sign-and-trade.
Jalen Johnson (24), Dyson Daniels (22), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (27)
Assets
Onyeka Okongwu (worth 20.5 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Nickeil Alexander-Walker (worth 13.7 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Jalen Johnson (worth 9.4 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Dyson Daniels (worth 4.8 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30)
Dead weight
Corey Kispert (overpaid by 9.1 M, through 2028-29)
Expiring contracts
CJ McCollum (21.0 M), Luguentz Dort (18.2 M), Jock Landale (14.1 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
Onyeka Okongwu (paid 16.1 M, produces like 37.0 M), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (paid 14.4 M, produces like 28.8 M)
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
2029 (≈ 5.4 M), 2031 (≈ 5.3 M) · 0 from other teams, 3 swaps
Distance to each line
1.9 M under the tax · 10.5 M under the 1st apron · 23.2 M under the 2nd apron
Next summer
140.3M committed · 36.2M in cap space (estimated cap)
No man's landNot good enough to win, not bad enough to start over
41.5projected wins
24.1years, core age
2years of window
194.5 Mover the cap
What we would do
The worst place in the league: too good for a high pick, too short for a ring. Either it goes all in with Deni Avdija and picks for a star, or it sells, starting with Jrue Holiday.
Extension comingVery likely
Donovan Clingan is finishing his rookie deal and producing: he needs to be locked up before he reaches the market.
SellerLikely
Jrue Holiday is the kind of veteran a contender asks for in February.
If the start goes badly, that is the natural way out.
Flight riskLikely
Jrue Holiday can leave next summer through his player option.
If the project does not convince him, better to trade him than lose him for nothing.
Who is asking about its players
DET → Toumani Camarasigned through 2029-30, produces above his salary
Donovan Clingan (21), Deni Avdija (25), Robert Williams (28)
Assets
Deni Avdija (worth 23.5 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Donovan Clingan (worth 15.9 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Toumani Camara (worth 6.5 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Vít Krejčí (worth 9.7 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28)
Dead weight
Shaedon Sharpe (overpaid by 17.4 M, through 2029-30) · Jrue Holiday (overpaid by 17.7 M, through 2027-28)
Expiring contracts
Scoot Henderson (13.6 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
Deni Avdija (paid 13.1 M, produces like 36.0 M)
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
Jrue Holiday (34.8 M, 2 years)
Firsts it can offer
2027 (≈ 7.9 M), 2031 (≈ 5.6 M) · 1 from other teams, 6 swaps
Distance to each line
5.9 M under the tax · 14.5 M under the 1st apron · 27.2 M under the 2nd apron
No man's landNot good enough to win, not bad enough to start over
39.5projected wins
22.4years, core age
2years of window
170.6 Mover the cap
Summer cap space
What we would do
The worst place in the league: too good for a high pick, too short for a ring. Either it goes all in with Kon Knueppel and picks for a star, or it sells, starting with Royce O'Neale.
Extension comingVery likely
Brandon Miller is finishing his rookie deal and producing: he needs to be locked up before he reaches the market.
SellerLikely
Royce O'Neale and Grayson Allen are the kind of veteran a contender asks for in February.
If the start goes badly, that is the natural way out.
Will hit free agency with cap spaceLikely
It has 140.7 M committed for next season: about 35.8 M under the cap (estimated).
Expensive free agents can only go to teams with space or via sign-and-trade.
Flight riskLikely
Grayson Allen can leave next summer through his player option.
If the project does not convince him, better to trade him than lose him for nothing.
Who is asking about its players
SA → Royce O'Nealesigned through 2027-28, produces above his salary
BOS → Royce O'Nealesigned through 2027-28, produces above his salary
HOU → Royce O'Nealesigned through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Kon Knueppel (20), Moussa Diabaté (24), Ryan Kalkbrenner (24)
Assets
Kon Knueppel (worth 26.3 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Ryan Kalkbrenner (worth 12.9 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Moussa Diabaté (worth 17.6 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Royce O'Neale (worth 9.7 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28)
Dead weight
Coby White (overpaid by 19.5 M, through 2028-29) · Naz Reid (overpaid by 13.9 M, through 2029-30) · Dennis Schröder (overpaid by 9.3 M, through 2027-28)
Expiring contracts
Brandon Miller (15.1 M), Grant Williams (14.3 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
Ryan Kalkbrenner (paid 2.4 M, produces like 15.5 M)
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
2027 (≈ 9.7 M), 2031 (≈ 5.8 M) · 5 from other teams, 4 swaps
Distance to each line
29.9 M under the tax · 38.4 M under the 1st apron · 51.1 M under the 2nd apron
Next summer
140.7M committed · 35.8M in cap space (estimated cap)
No man's landNot good enough to win, not bad enough to start over
37.5projected wins
25.1years, core age
3years of window
181.9 Mover the cap
What we would do
The worst place in the league: too good for a high pick, too short for a ring. Either it goes all in with Jaxson Hayes and picks for a star, or it sells.
What we would do
It pays 223.3 M to project 43.5 wins. The sensible move is to shed Jalen Suggs even if it means adding a young player to get someone to take him, and get under the aprons before the bill eats the project.
SellerVery likely
Nikola Vučević is the kind of veteran a contender asks for in February.
They are no use to this project in the medium term.
Clean up the booksVery likely
Spends 223.3 M and is over the second apron.
Jalen Suggs and Desmond Bane are paid more than they produce.
It is 22.9 M over the tax, and every extra million costs another one and a half or more in penalties.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
Who is asking about its players
PHI → Goga Bitadzefills its hole at bigs, expiring contract, produces above his salary
CLE → Tristan Da Silvasigned through 2027-28, produces above his salary
DEN → Goga Bitadzeexpiring contract, produces above his salary
MIA → Tristan Da Silvasigned through 2027-28, produces above his salary
Desmond Bane (27), Paolo Banchero (23), Wendell Carter Jr. (26)
Assets
Wendell Carter Jr. (worth 14.5 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Nikola Vučević (worth 26.8 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Tristan Da Silva (worth 4.3 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Goga Bitadze (worth 4.5 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27)
Dead weight
Jalen Suggs (overpaid by 10.0 M, through 2029-30) · Desmond Bane (overpaid by 8.9 M, through 2028-29)
Expiring contracts
Jonathan Isaac (10.4 M), Anthony Black (10.1 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
Wendell Carter Jr. (paid 18.1 M, produces like 34.1 M)
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
None
Firsts it can offer
None· 0 from other teams, 1 swaps· the 2031 one, frozen by the 2nd apron
Distance to each line
22.9 M over the tax · 14.3 M over the 1st apron · 1.6 M over the 2nd apron
What we would do
It pays 206.4 M to project 43.5 wins. The sensible move is to shed Andrew Nembhard even if it means attaching a pick to get someone to take him, and get under the aprons before the bill eats the project.
Clean up the booksVery likely
Spends 206.4 M and is in the luxury tax.
Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard are paid more than they produce.
It is 6.0 M over the tax, and every extra million costs another one and a half or more in penalties.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
Who is asking about its players
PHI → Jay Hufffills its hole at bigs, signed through 2027-28, produces above his salary
TOR → Jay Huffsigned through 2027-28, produces above his salary
What we would do
It pays 216.2 M to project 40.5 wins. The sensible move is to shed Dillon Brooks even if it means adding a young player to get someone to take him, and get under the aprons before the bill eats the project.
SellerVery likely
Luke Kennard is the kind of veteran a contender asks for in February.
They are no use to this project in the medium term.
Clean up the booksVery likely
Spends 216.2 M and is over the first apron.
Dillon Brooks is paid more than he produces.
It is 15.8 M over the tax, and every extra million costs another one and a half or more in penalties.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
Flight riskLikely
Jalen Green can leave next summer through his player option.
If the project does not convince him, better to trade him than lose him for nothing.
Who is asking about its players
OKC → Miles Bridgesexpiring contract, produces above his salary
NY → Jordan Goodwinsigned through 2028-29, produces above his salary
DET → Jordan Goodwinsigned through 2028-29, produces above his salary
CLE → Jordan Goodwinsigned through 2028-29, produces above his salary
Devin Booker (29), Collin Gillespie (26), Miles Bridges (27)
Assets
Collin Gillespie (worth 19.0 M more than he is paid, through 2029-30) · Jordan Goodwin (worth 16.3 M more than he is paid, through 2028-29) · Oso Ighodaro (worth 9.8 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Miles Bridges (worth 18.1 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27)
Dead weight
Dillon Brooks (overpaid by 16.4 M, through 2029-30)
Expiring contracts
Miles Bridges (22.8 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
Collin Gillespie (paid 10.7 M, produces like 31.0 M)
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
Jalen Green (36.3 M, 2 years)
Firsts it can offer
None· 0 from other teams, 12 swaps
Distance to each line
15.8 M over the tax · 7.2 M over the 1st apron · 5.5 M under the 2nd apron
What we would do
It pays 223.3 M to project 38.5 wins. The sensible move is to start getting under the aprons before the bill eats the project.
SellerVery likely
Jimmy Butler is the kind of veteran a contender asks for in February.
They are no use to this project in the medium term.
Clean up the booksVery likely
Spends 223.3 M and is over the second apron.
It is 22.9 M over the tax, and every extra million costs another one and a half or more in penalties.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
Will hit free agency with cap spaceVery likely
It has 126.7 M committed for next season: about 49.9 M under the cap (estimated).
Expensive free agents can only go to teams with space or via sign-and-trade.
Extension comingVery likely
Brandin Podziemski is finishing his rookie deal and producing: he needs to be locked up before he reaches the market.
Flight riskLikely
Kristaps Porziņģis can leave next summer through his player option.
If the project does not convince him, better to trade him than lose him for nothing.
Who is asking about its players
For now, no buyer fits what it has.
Possible trade
No trade that works under the rules right now: either nobody can absorb those salaries, or it has nothing to offer without breaking itself apart.
Full profile
Core
Jimmy Butler (36), Stephen Curry (37), Brandin Podziemski (22)
Assets
Brandin Podziemski (worth 16.3 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Brandon Williams (worth 11.8 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Gary Payton II (worth 10.8 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27)
Dead weight
None
Expiring contracts
Jimmy Butler (56.8 M), Draymond Green (27.7 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
Jimmy Butler (56.8 M, final year), Draymond Green (27.7 M, final year)
Firsts it can offer
2027 (≈ 10.8 M), 2029 (≈ 15.1 M) · the 2031 one, frozen by the 2nd apron
Distance to each line
22.9 M over the tax · 14.3 M over the 1st apron · 1.6 M over the 2nd apron
Next summer
126.7M committed · 49.9M in cap space (estimated cap)
What we would do
It pays 204.3 M to project 28.5 wins. The sensible move is to shed Herbert Jones even if it means attaching a pick to get someone to take him, and get under the aprons before the bill eats the project.
Losing does not helpVery likely
It does not own its 2027 first-round pick: if it loses, someone else celebrates.
It has to compete every night even without the roster for it.
Clean up the booksVery likely
Spends 204.3 M and is in the luxury tax.
Herbert Jones and Jeremiah Fears are paid more than they produce.
It is only 3.8 M over the tax: one minor move gets it out.
Expiring contracts appeal to it: swapping long money for salary that runs out frees up room for the summer.
Flight riskLikely
Dejounte Murray can leave next summer through his player option.
If the project does not convince him, better to trade him than lose him for nothing.
Who is asking about its players
NY → Saddiq Beysigned through 2029-30, produces above his salary
MIN → Saddiq Beysigned through 2029-30, produces above his salary
HOU → Saddiq Beysigned through 2029-30, produces above his salary
What we would do
The core averages 27.7 years old and has nothing more to give. Sell Norman Powell while he still has value and stockpile picks for what comes next.
SellerVery likely
Norman Powell is the kind of veteran a contender asks for in February.
They are no use to this project in the medium term.
Losing pays offVery likely
It owns its 2027 first-round pick.
Every loss adds lottery balls.
Who is asking about its players
OKC → Tre Jonessigned through 2027-28, produces above his salary
SA → Tre Jonessigned through 2027-28, produces above his salary
BOS → Tre Jonessigned through 2027-28, produces above his salary
DET → Tre Jonessigned through 2027-28, produces above his salary
What we would do
The core averages 28.3 years old and has nothing more to give. Sell Brandon Ingram while he still has value and stockpile picks for what comes next. And without its own pick this year, it cannot even console itself with the lottery.
SellerVery likely
Brandon Ingram is the kind of veteran a contender asks for in February.
They are no use to this project in the medium term.
Losing does not helpVery likely
It does not own its 2027 first-round pick: if it loses, someone else celebrates.
It has to compete every night even without the roster for it.
Will hit free agency with cap spaceLikely
It has 140.9 M committed for next season: about 35.6 M under the cap (estimated).
Expensive free agents can only go to teams with space or via sign-and-trade.
Who is asking about its players
NY → Kris Dunnexpiring contract, produces above his salary
MIN → Kris Dunnexpiring contract, produces above his salary
CLE → Jordan Millersigned through 2028-29, produces above his salary
TOR → Kris Dunnexpiring contract, produces above his salary
What we would do
Everything revolves around Kel'el Ware: minutes, patience and picks. Its 2027 pick belongs to someone else, so losing does not help: it has to compete with what it has.
Losing does not helpVery likely
It does not own its 2027 first-round pick: if it loses, someone else celebrates.
It has to compete every night even without the roster for it.
Will hit free agency with cap spaceVery likely
It has 116.8 M committed for next season: about 59.7 M under the cap (estimated).
Expensive free agents can only go to teams with space or via sign-and-trade.
Extension comingVery likely
Kel'el Ware is finishing his rookie deal and producing: he needs to be locked up before he reaches the market.
Who is asking about its players
OKC → Kevin Porter Jr.expiring contract, produces above his salary
BOS → Kevin Porter Jr.expiring contract, produces above his salary
MIN → Kevin Porter Jr.expiring contract, produces above his salary
TOR → Kevin Porter Jr.expiring contract, produces above his salary
Kel'el Ware (21), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (24), Ryan Rollins (23)
Assets
Ryan Rollins (worth 12.6 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Kel'el Ware (worth 11.6 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28) · Jaime Jaquez Jr. (worth 12.2 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27) · Kevin Porter Jr. (worth 9.1 M more than he is paid, through 2026-27)
Dead weight
Gary Trent Jr. (overpaid by 15.3 M, through 2029-30) · Myles Turner (overpaid by 20.2 M, through 2028-29)
Expiring contracts
Tyler Herro (33.0 M), Kyle Kuzma (20.3 M), Caris LeVert (14.8 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
Tyler Herro (33.0 M, final year)
Firsts it can offer
2031 (≈ 8.0 M) · 2 from other teams, 7 swaps
Distance to each line
9.1 M under the tax · 17.7 M under the 1st apron · 30.3 M under the 2nd apron
Next summer
116.8M committed · 59.7M in cap space (estimated cap)
What we would do
The core averages 28.3 years old and has nothing more to give. Sell Julius Randle while he still has value and stockpile picks for what comes next. And without its own pick this year, it cannot even console itself with the lottery.
SellerVery likely
Julius Randle is the kind of veteran a contender asks for in February.
They are no use to this project in the medium term.
Losing does not helpVery likely
It does not own its 2027 first-round pick: if it loses, someone else celebrates.
It has to compete every night even without the roster for it.
Will hit free agency with cap spaceVery likely
It has 119.3 M committed for next season: about 57.2 M under the cap (estimated).
Expensive free agents can only go to teams with space or via sign-and-trade.
Maxime Raynaud (22), Precious Achiuwa (26), Zach LaVine (30)
Assets
Maxime Raynaud (worth 5.1 M more than he is paid, through 2027-28)
Dead weight
Malik Monk (overpaid by 18.1 M, through 2027-28)
Expiring contracts
Zach LaVine (49.0 M), De'Andre Hunter (24.9 M)
Bargains (careful trading them)
None
Pricey and short (to clear the books)
Zach LaVine (49.0 M, final year), De'Andre Hunter (24.9 M, final year)
Firsts it can offer
2027 (≈ 21.8 M), 2029 (≈ 15.1 M) · 1 from other teams, 1 swaps
Distance to each line
8.6 M under the tax · 17.2 M under the 1st apron · 29.9 M under the 2nd apron
Next summer
132.0M committed · 44.5M in cap space (estimated cap)
Hole
Guards: its best guard ranks below 100% of the league
How we think through each front office
Where it stands. The level is the sportsbooks' win projection; once the season starts it blends with each team's record, and by mid-season the games played weigh more. From that and the age of the core (its three most productive players, weighted by production) comes the phase: contender from 52 wins, challenger from 45.5, no man's land from 37 and, below that, rebuild. Anyone projecting under 44 wins while over the first apron, or paying tax with next year's payroll locked in, comes out as stuck.
What it is allowed to do. The aprons (over the second one, salaries cannot be aggregated in a trade and the pick seven years out is frozen), next summer's cap space —options included, a minimum salary for every empty spot up to twelve players and the hold for its own first-round pick— and the first-round picks it can really offer: the Stepien rule forbids going without a first in two consecutive years.
What it has. Assets are players who produce above what they are paid according to our Contracts model; dead weight, those paid well above what they produce who still have years left (not counting the star or anyone who missed half the season injured). Expiring contracts are used to match salaries. The hole is the position where its best player sits in the bottom third of the league.
When. Losing only helps teams that own their first-round pick; rookies finishing their deals who produce need extensions; player options open the door to a departure.
The ones we would go get: they produce, they are young, they are paid less than they are worth and they are gettable.
1
Trey Murphy III Massiveball pick
NO
SF · age 25 · 27.0 M
Our number-one target: a 25-year-old wing who shoots, defends with wing size and can already carry an offense. A house Blue Chip.
Locked up through 2028-29His team could sellBlue Chip
They start out standing out on defense, put in the work on offense and end up as stars you can trust. The mold: Kawhi.
Defense (DBPM)
Offense (OBPM)
Established 15
Jalen Johnson
ATL · SF · age 24
Started
Offense −1.2Defense +1.5
Now
Offense +2.8Defense +1.4
Growth
Offense +4.0Defense −0.1
Pascal Siakam
IND · PF · age 31
Started
Offense −3.0Defense +0.7
Now
Offense +1.8Defense −1.0
Growth
Offense +4.8Defense −1.7
Mikal Bridges
NY · SF · age 29
Started
Offense −2.0Defense +0.4
Now
Offense +1.3Defense +1.4
Growth
Offense +3.3Defense +1.0
Evan Mobley
CLE · PF · age 24
Started
Offense −0.9Defense +1.5
Now
Offense +1.8Defense +1.2
Growth
Offense +2.7Defense −0.3
Ausar Thompson
DET · SF · age 23
Started
Offense −2.8Defense +0.6
Now
Offense −0.6Defense +3.6
Growth
Offense +2.2Defense +3.0
Kyle Anderson
TOR · SF · age 32
Started
Offense −1.7Defense +3.1
Now
Offense −1.3Defense +1.7
Growth
Offense +0.4Defense −1.4
Donte DiVincenzo
MIN · SG · age 29
Started
Offense −1.1Defense +2.4
Now
Offense 0.0Defense +0.7
Growth
Offense +1.1Defense −1.7
Josh Hart
NY · SF · age 30
Started
Offense −0.6Defense +0.5
Now
Offense +1.0Defense +2.0
Growth
Offense +1.6Defense +1.5
Dyson Daniels
ATL · SG · age 22
Started
Offense −3.4Defense +1.6
Now
Offense −0.6Defense +1.8
Growth
Offense +2.8Defense +0.2
Santi Aldama
DAL · PF · age 25
Started
Offense −0.3Defense +0.8
Now
Offense +1.3Defense +0.4
Growth
Offense +1.6Defense −0.4
Amen Thompson
HOU · PG · age 23
Started
Offense −0.1Defense +1.9
Now
Offense +1.6Defense +1.0
Growth
Offense +1.7Defense −0.9
Jaylin Williams
OKC · PF · age 23
Started
Offense −2.3Defense +0.6
Now
Offense 0.0Defense +2.8
Growth
Offense +2.3Defense +2.2
Trey Murphy III
NO · SF · age 25
Started
Offense +0.2Defense −1.4
Now
Offense +3.0Defense −0.6
Growth
Offense +2.8Defense +0.8
Jaden McDaniels
MIN · PF · age 25
Started
Offense −3.3Defense −0.2
Now
Offense −0.9Defense +0.6
Growth
Offense +2.4Defense +0.8
Peyton Watson
CLE · SF · age 23
Started
Offense −3.0Defense +0.8
Now
Offense −0.8Defense −0.5
Growth
Offense +2.2Defense −1.3
Opportunities 6
Blue Chip profile and a contract that ends this season.
Anthony Black
ORL · PG · age 22
Rookie deal ends: restricted free agent in 2027
Started
Offense −3.8Defense +0.8
Now
Offense −1.2Defense +0.7
Growth
Offense +2.6Defense −0.1
Cason Wallace
OKC · SG · age 22
Rookie deal ends: restricted free agent in 2027
Started
Offense −0.9Defense +1.0
Now
Offense −2.1Defense +3.3
Growth
Offense −1.2Defense +2.3
Brandin Podziemski
GS · SG · age 22
Rookie deal ends: restricted free agent in 2027
Started
Offense −0.5Defense +0.4
Now
Offense +0.3Defense −0.1
Growth
Offense +0.8Defense −0.5
Mouhamed Gueye
ATL · PF · age 23
Contract ends: free agent in 2027
Started
Offense −1.6Defense +1.0
Now
Offense −2.6Defense +1.3
Growth
Offense −1.0Defense +0.3
Dalen Terry
GS · SG · age 23
Contract ends: free agent in 2027
Started
Offense −3.4Defense +1.1
Now
Offense −2.4Defense +0.8
Growth
Offense +1.0Defense −0.3
Sidy Cissoko
POR · SF · age 21
Contract ends: free agent in 2027
Started
Offense −4.6Defense +0.5
Now
Offense −4.6Defense +0.5
Growth
Offense 0.0Defense 0.0
Low-key 12
On the radar: young players who start out defending. We are watching them closely.
Reed Sheppard
HOU · SG · age 21
Started
Offense −3.0Defense +1.3
Now
Offense +1.2Defense +1.5
Growth
Offense +4.2Defense +0.2
Ajay Mitchell
OKC · SG · age 23
Started
Offense −2.5Defense +0.9
Now
Offense +0.3Defense +1.6
Growth
Offense +2.8Defense +0.7
Collin Murray-Boyles
TOR · PF · age 20
Started
Offense −0.5Defense +1.5
Now
Offense −0.5Defense +1.5
Growth
Offense 0.0Defense 0.0
Dylan Harper
SA · SG · age 19
Started
Offense +0.3Defense +1.1
Now
Offense +0.3Defense +1.1
Growth
Offense 0.0Defense 0.0
Oso Ighodaro
PHX · PF · age 23
Started
Offense −2.9Defense +0.3
Now
Offense −2.2Defense +2.3
Growth
Offense +0.7Defense +2.0
Jordan Walsh
BOS · PF · age 21
Started
Offense −4.4Defense +0.5
Now
Offense −1.4Defense +1.6
Growth
Offense +3.0Defense +1.1
Hugo González
BOS · SF · age 19
Started
Offense −3.1Defense +1.6
Now
Offense −3.1Defense +1.6
Growth
Offense 0.0Defense 0.0
Kasparas Jakučionis
MIL · PG · age 19
Started
Offense −1.0Defense +0.6
Now
Offense −1.0Defense +0.6
Growth
Offense 0.0Defense 0.0
Sion James
CHA · SG · age 23
Started
Offense −3.0Defense +1.1
Now
Offense −3.0Defense +1.1
Growth
Offense 0.0Defense 0.0
Will Richard
GS · SG · age 23
Started
Offense −2.5Defense +0.9
Now
Offense −2.5Defense +0.9
Growth
Offense 0.0Defense 0.0
Ron Holland
DET · SF · age 20
Started
Offense −3.3Defense +0.3
Now
Offense −3.3Defense +1.4
Growth
Offense 0.0Defense +1.1
Noah Penda
ORL · SF · age 21
Started
Offense −2.0Defense +0.6
Now
Offense −2.0Defense +0.6
Growth
Offense 0.0Defense 0.0
Stars 3
They completed the process.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
MIA · PF · age 31
Started
Offense −2.4Defense −0.1
Now
Offense +7.7Defense +1.8
Growth
Offense +10.1Defense +1.9
Kawhi Leonard
TOR · SF · age 34
Started
Offense +1.6Defense +1.8
Now
Offense +7.4Defense +0.6
Growth
Offense +5.8Defense −1.2
Draymond Green
GS · PF · age 35
Started
Offense −5.0Defense +1.4
Now
Offense −2.4Defense +1.0
Growth
Offense +2.6Defense −0.4
The classics 10
Andre Iguodala
2004-2021
Started
Offense −0.7Defense +2.1
In his best year
Offense +2.6BPM +4.0 (2008)
Growth
Offense −1.5Defense −0.3
Paul George
2011-2026
Started
Offense +1.4Defense +2.1
In his best year
Offense +5.6BPM +7.2 (2019)
Growth
Offense −0.4Defense −1.4
Scottie Pippen
1987-2003
Started
Offense −1.9Defense +1.3
In his best year
Offense +4.6BPM +7.7 (1994)
Growth
Offense +1.9Defense +0.3
Metta World Peace
1999-2013
Started
Offense −1.1Defense +0.9
In his best year
Offense +2.1BPM +3.5 (2004)
Growth
Offense +0.6Defense 0.0
Shawn Marion
1999-2015
Started
Offense +0.3Defense +0.9
In his best year
Offense +3.9BPM +5.6 (2003)
Growth
Offense −1.2Defense −1.0
Andrei Kirilenko
2001-2015
Started
Offense +1.8Defense +1.9
In his best year
Offense +5.5BPM +7.9 (2004)
Growth
Offense −6.2Defense −3.2
Luol Deng
2004-2019
Started
Offense +0.2Defense +1.0
In his best year
Offense +1.7BPM +3.0 (2007)
Growth
Offense 0.0Defense −1.3
Gerald Wallace
2001-2014
Started
Offense −1.2Defense +1.4
In his best year
Offense +2.2BPM +4.9 (2006)
Growth
Offense −1.6Defense +0.6
Tayshaun Prince
2002-2016
Started
Offense −0.6Defense +0.5
In his best year
Offense +2.1BPM +2.1 (2005)
Growth
Offense −2.3Defense −0.6
Michael Cooper
1979-1990
Started
Offense −0.4Defense +0.3
In his best year
Offense +1.4BPM +2.5 (1984)
Growth
Offense −1.3Defense +0.7
Case #1 · Detroit Pistons · October 2, 2026
Jalen Duren
Center, 22 years old. Re-signs with the Pistons after his best season (All-Star and All-NBA) and a playoff run in which he vanished.
Massiveball verdictOverpaidSevere
200 M5 years, 100% guaranteed
40.0 Mper season, through 2030-31
24.2 %of the 2026-27 salary cap
×6.2what he made last season (6.5M)
01 What he made and what he'll make
Over the four years of his rookie deal Duren earned 19.5 M in total. This season alone he'll make 40.0 M: more than double his entire career so far. He signed on October 2, 2026, with the one-year qualifying offer (9.6M) as his only alternative and summer offers of 170 to 190M on the table. Detroit ends up at 200M, with no team option.
4.1 M2022-23
4.3 M2023-24
4.5 M2024-25
6.5 M2025-26
40.0 M2026-27
40.0 M2027-28
40.0 M2028-29
40.0 M2029-30
40.0 M2030-31
Rookie contract New contract
02 From underpaid to overpaid
2025-26 · before
−56.1 M
He made 6.5M and his regular season was worth 62.6M according to our model. Underpaid, and by a lot: one of the best contracts in the league.
→
2026-27 · now
+18.6 M
He makes 40.0M. Playoff Duren is worth about 21.4M. Overpaid in every one of the five seasons: roughly 93 M too much in total.
Where does the playoff value come from? It's the same calculation as our Contracts model, but using what he produced in the playoffs: 0,091 Win Shares per 48 minutes instead of 0,266. A third of the player, a third of the price.
03 Regular season vs. playoffs
Detroit isn't paying 200M to win in November. It's paying to win in May, and in May Duren was a different player: 14 games, knocked out by Cleveland in Game 7 of the East semifinals, with more minutes than in the regular season and almost half the points.
Stat
2025-26 season
2026 playoffs
Difference
Games
70
14
−56
Minutes
28.2
30.1
+1.9
Points
19.5
10.2
−9.3
Rebounds
10.5
8.5
−2.0
Assists
2.0
2.1
+0.1
Blocks
0.8
1.2
+0.4
True shooting (TS%)
68.8 %
55.3 %
−13.5 %
PER
26.1
13.8
−12.3
Win Shares per 48 min
0.266
0.091
−0.175
BPM
5.0
−1.7
−6.7
04 Why it's severe
Five years, fully guaranteed. No team option in the final year and no performance incentives. If playoff Duren is the real one, Detroit has no way out.
A center who doesn't protect the rim. 0.8 blocks in the regular season. He's paid like a franchise center and defensively he's an ordinary starter (DBPM +0.5).
Bidding against itself. In restricted free agency, holding the right to match any offer, Detroit ends up above the 170-190M offers that were talked about all summer.
It closes the financial window. With Cunningham and Duren, Detroit already has 193.2M committed for 2026-27, 7.2M below the luxury tax (200.4M), and Ausar Thompson's extension kicks in for 2027-28.
The offense doesn't scale. His production depends on offensive rebounds, dunks and rolls. In the playoffs they packed the paint and his true shooting fell from 68.8% to 55.3%.
05 Devil's advocate: what our model says
Let's be honest: going by the regular season, our own Contracts model disagrees. Looking only at the regular season, Duren is the third most productive starting center in the league, behind Jokić and Wembanyama, and would be due a salary of 62.6 M, max level. By that yardstick the 40.0M would be cheap.
Our take is different because the model measures the regular season, and contracts this size are judged in the playoffs. If in 2026-27 he performs in May the way he does in January, we'll correct ourselves right here.
06 The bar: what he has to average for the contract to be a good one
For 40M a season to be money well spent for Detroit, these are the minimums we ask of him. Next to them, what he did last season.
Regular season 8/10
Stat
Minimum
2025-26
Meets it
Games
≥ 70
70
✓Meets it
Points
≥ 18.0
19.5
✓Meets it
Rebounds
≥ 11.0
10.5
✗Falls short
Blocks
≥ 1.3
0.8
✗Falls short
True shooting (TS%)
≥ 65.0 %
68.8 %
✓Meets it
PER
≥ 22.0
26.1
✓Meets it
Win Shares
≥ 9.0
11.0
✓Meets it
Win Shares per 48 min
≥ 0.200
0.266
✓Meets it
BPM
≥ 3.0
5.0
✓Meets it
VORP
≥ 3.0
3.5
✓Meets it
Playoffs 0/7
Stat
Minimum
2026 playoffs
Meets it
Points
≥ 16.0
10.2
✗Falls short
Rebounds
≥ 11.0
8.5
✗Falls short
Blocks
≥ 1.3
1.2
✗Falls short
True shooting (TS%)
≥ 60.0 %
55.3 %
✗Falls short
PER
≥ 18.0
13.8
✗Falls short
Win Shares per 48 min
≥ 0.150
0.091
✗Falls short
BPM
≥ 1.0
−1.7
✗Falls short
07 What Detroit has committed
The Pistons' payroll already on the books, Duren included. 2026-27 luxury tax: 200.4M. First apron: 209M. Second apron: 221.7M.
2026-27193.2 M
2027-28191.7 M
2028-29160.7 M
2029-30139.8 M
2030-3173.1 M
Sources: ESPN (contract, October 2, 2026) and Basketball-Reference (stats and salaries). The fair value comes from Massiveball's Contracts model.
What every first-round pick in the league is worth, the way a GM would value it.
The most interesting firsts in the league
SAC1ª 2027≈ 31 ptsExpected slot ~4 · Top of the lottery · top 4: 50%It belongs to a rebuilding team: a top-lottery candidate.
SAC1ª 2028≈ 26 ptsExpected slot ~5 · Top of the lottery · top 4: 43%It belongs to a rebuilding team: a top-lottery candidate.
MEM1ª 2027≈ 25 ptsExpected slot ~6 · Lottery · top 4: 36%It belongs to a rebuilding team: a top-lottery candidate.
MIL1ª 2027≈ 25 ptsExpected slot ~5 · Top of the lottery · top 4: 46%It belongs to a rebuilding team: a top-lottery candidate.
LAC1ª 2027≈ 24 ptsExpected slot ~5 · Top of the lottery · top 4: 44%It belongs to a rebuilding team: a top-lottery candidate.
LAC1ª 2028→ BOS≈ 23 ptsExpected slot ~6 · Lottery · top 4: 37%It belongs to a rebuilding team: a top-lottery candidate; it is no longer theirs: BOS holds it.
CHI1ª 2027≈ 23 ptsExpected slot ~7 · Lottery · top 4: 31%It belongs to a rebuilding team: a top-lottery candidate.
NO1ª 2027≈ 23 ptsExpected slot ~6 · Top of the lottery · top 4: 40%It belongs to a team with no clear direction: it could land in the lottery.
GS1ª 2028≈ 22 ptsExpected slot ~7 · Lottery · top 4: 34%It belongs to a team with no clear direction: it could land in the lottery.
NO1ª 2028≈ 22 ptsExpected slot ~7 · Lottery · top 4: 34%It belongs to a team with no clear direction: it could land in the lottery.
BKN1ª 2028≈ 21 ptsExpected slot ~6 · Top of the lottery · top 4: 41%It belongs to a rebuilding team: a top-lottery candidate.
GS1ª 2029≈ 21 ptsExpected slot ~7 · Lottery · top 4: 35%It belongs to a team with no clear direction: it could land in the lottery; its core averages 32.0 years: the further out, the further it can sink.
In trade-value points, the same scale as players in the Trade Machine. At most two per team. "→ SA": no longer theirs, San Antonio holds it.
The draft curve
#1
≈ 31.0 M
Star candidate. The one who changes a franchise.
#2-3
≈ 25.7 M
Quality starter with an All-Star ceiling.
#4-6
≈ 18.9 M
Likely starter. Still a high ceiling.
#7-10
≈ 12.7 M
Starter or sixth man if it goes well.
#11-14
≈ 8.5 M
End of the lottery: rotation player with the odd surprise.
#15-20
≈ 5.7 M
Rotation player. More useful as a trade chip.
#21-30
≈ 3.9 M
Role or development player. Mostly, currency.
Contract value of a rookie at that slot during his cheap years. Any distant unprotected first is worth ≈ 9.9M on average.
What moves the price of a first
Whose pick it is, not who holds it. A pick is worth what its original team is going to do. A bad team's pick is gold; a contender's, small change.
When. Next year's pick can be estimated fairly well. The further out, the wider the range of possible slots: a distant pick from a bad team is still worth a lot, but with a 7% discount for every year of waiting.
The age of that core. A contender with stars aged 30+ gives away distant picks today that could be top 5 tomorrow. That is the rebuilders' big business. Conversely, the pick of a young team on the rise is worth less every year.
Protections. A protected pick only counts in the slots where it actually conveys. A top-5 protected pick from a good team is worth almost in full; one from a bad team, very little.
Swaps. If another team has the right to swap it for a worse one, it is worth a bit less. And a swap right, on its own, is worth the gap between the two picks.
The lottery is flattened. The three worst teams each have a 14% chance at No. 1. That is why the worst team's pick is not worth a sure No. 1, but it is worth a lot for the chance it lands very high.
What can actually be offered. A team cannot go without a first in two consecutive years (Stepien rule), and over the second apron the pick seven years out is frozen. Not every pick can be used.
Who is buying. A contender pays with distant picks because its urgency is now. A rebuilder stockpiles them, but gives none for a rotation player.
The league's pick bank
Every team's first, year by year: what it is worth and, if it no longer owns it, who does. Most valuable at the top.
From
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034*
2035*
Total
SAC
21.8
18.3
15.1
12.5
3.8swap
9.1
7.9
7.1
6.3
88.5 M
NO
16.1swap
15.9
13.2
11.1
9.6
8.4
7.4
6.7
6.1
81.6 M
MEM
17.6
15.1
10.8swap
9.2swap
9.3
8.2
7.3
6.6
6.0
77.4 M
CHI
16.2
14.2
12.1
10.4
9.0
8.0
7.2
6.5
5.9
77.2 M
BKN
5.3swap
15.1swap
14.7
12.2
10.3
8.9
7.8
7.0
6.3
74.3 M
GS
10.8
15.9
15.1
2.0→ MEM
10.6
9.1
7.9
7.1
6.3
71.3 M
WSH
13.3
10.6swap
11.0
8.2swap
8.5
7.6
6.9
6.3
5.8
66.1 M
UTAH
10.2swap
9.8swap
8.8swap
7.8swap
8.2
7.4
6.8
6.2
5.7
59.1 M
MIL
17.7swap
6.4swap
5.2swap
7.5swap
8.0
7.3
6.6
6.1
5.6
58.6 M
LAC
17.0swap
16.6→ BOS
5.3swap
—
—
8.5
7.6
6.8
6.1
54.9 M
MIA
5.1→ CHA
6.5→ CHA
7.9
7.2swap
8.4→ MIL
8.0
7.2→ MIL
6.5
5.9
50.2 M
PHX
8.7→ HOU
7.5swap
4.4swap
6.8swap
7.5→ MEM
6.9
6.4→ CHA
5.9
5.5
48.2 M
ORL
7.2
7.4→ POR
6.4swap
7.3→ MEM
6.9
6.5
6.1
5.7
5.4
47.9 M
DAL
11.6→ CHA
3.5swap
4.5swap
7.2swap
7.4
6.6
6.0
5.6
5.3
46.8 M
IND
6.6
6.8
7.0
6.9
6.7
6.4
6.0
5.6
5.3
46.4 M
CLE
3.6swap
4.3swap
5.6swap
7.7
8.0→ DEN
7.3
6.6
6.1
5.6
43.0 M
CHA
9.7
5.9swap
4.7swap
4.8swap
5.8
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.0
42.2 M
POR
7.9
5.9swap
5.4swap
5.1swap
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.1
4.9
40.7 M
DEN
4.1→ OKC
4.7→ OKC
5.2→ OKC
5.2→ OKC
7.7
7.1→ BKN
6.5
6.0
5.6
40.6 M
PHI
3.9
3.7swap
4.9swap
7.2
7.2→ BOS
6.7
6.3
5.8
5.4
39.9 M
LAL
5.6→ MEM
4.9swap
6.1→ DAL
4.8swap
6.2→ UTAH
6.0
5.8→ UTAH
5.5
5.1
39.5 M
TOR
5.0swap
5.0
5.4
5.7
5.8→ LAC
5.7
5.5→ LAC
5.3
5.0
38.1 M
ATL
6.1→ SA
4.8swap
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.7
37.0 M
NY
3.7→ BKN
3.8swap
4.4→ BKN
5.3
5.9→ BKN
6.1
6.0
5.6
5.3
35.2 M
HOU
4.0swap
4.7
4.3swap
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
35.1 M
MIN
3.8swap
4.2swap
4.1swap
4.4swap
5.4→ SAC
5.4
5.3→ CHA
5.1
4.9
32.7 M
DET
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.6
4.9
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.7
31.5 M
BOS
3.8
3.4swap
3.6swap
4.2
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.6
29.1 M
OKC
3.0swap
3.0swap
3.6
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.4
26.6 M
SA
3.6→ OKC
3.1swap
3.7
3.4swap
3.6swap
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.5
26.5 M
In millions of contract value. "→ SA": San Antonio holds it. "P": protected. "swap": another team can swap it. "—": forfeited as a penalty. "*": cannot be traded yet (the league allows trading the next seven drafts); not counted in the total.
Every trade in the last year. Each team, with what it receives.
CHA
Rob Dillingham
CHI
Buddy Hield · Cash considerations
ATL
Dorian Finney-Smith
CHA
Buddy Hield · Ryan Nembhard · Cash considerations
LAC
Gradey Dick · Brandon Ingram · 2027 TOR first-round pick swap right · 2030 TOR second-round pick · 2031 TOR first-round pick · 2033 TOR first-round pick · 2033 TOR second-round pick
TOR
Kawhi Leonard
MEM
Jordan Hawkins · Micah Peavy · 2031 TOR second-round pick · 2032 second-round pick swap right
NO
Taj Gibson · AJ Johnson
MIN
John Konchar · Cody Williams
UTAH
Josh Green · Cash considerations
CHA
Dennis Schröder (from Cleveland) · Cash considerations (from Cleveland)
CLE
Peyton Watson ( sign-and-trade ) (from Denver) · Cam Whitmore (from Washington) · Draft rights to Ismaël Kamagate (2022 No. 46) (from Los Angeles)
BOS
Paul George · 2028 first-round pick · 2028 second-round pick · 2030 second-round pick · 2031 PHI first-round pick
PHI
Jaylen Brown
DET
Isaiah Joe
OKC
2030 MIN second-round pick · 2031 DET second-round pick
MIA
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Bobby Portis
MIL
Tyler Herro · Kasparas Jakučionis · Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Kel'el Ware · Draft rights to Nate Ament (No. 13) · 2030 first-round pick swap right · 2031 MIA first-round pick · 2033 MIA first-round pick · 2033 MIA second-round pick
CHA
Dorian Finney-Smith · 2027 MEM second-round pick · 2028 HOU second-round pick · 2033 HOU second-round pick
HOU
Cash considerations
ATL
Devin Carter · 2033 SAC second-round pick
SAC
Draft rights to Alpha Kaba (2017 No. 60)
MEM
Jerami Grant · Kris Murray
POR
Ja Morant · Cash considerations
DET
Draft rights to Ebuka Okorie (No. 17)
MEM
Draft rights to Karim López (No. 21) · 2029 second-round pick · 2031 DAL second-round pick · 2032 DET second-round pick
DAL
Draft rights to Sergio de Larrea (No. 25) (from Los Angeles)
LAL
Draft rights to Cameron Carr (No. 24) (from New York)
NY
Draft rights to Melvin Ajinça (2024 No. 51) (from Dallas) · Draft rights to Chinemelu Elonu (2009 No. 59) (from Los Angeles) · Draft rights to Louis Labeyrie (2014 No. 57) (from Los Angeles) · 2026 PHI second-round pick (No. 47) (from Phoenix) · 2029 PHX second-round pick (from Phoenix) · 2030 PHI second-round pick (from Dallas) · 2032 DAL second-round pick (from Dallas) · 2033 PHX second-round pick (from Phoenix) · Cash considerations (from Los Angeles) · Cash considerations (from Phoenix)
PHX
Draft rights to Koa Peat (No. 30) (from Dallas)
ATL
Draft rights to Henri Veesaar (No. 52)
LAC
Draft rights to Narcisse Ngoy (No. 57) · Cash considerations
CHI
Kam Jones · 2028 second-round pick swap right · 2030 second-round pick swap right · Cash considerations
IND
Draft rights to Braden Smith (No. 38)
CHI
Cash considerations
LAL
Draft rights to Vsevolod Ishchenko (No. 56)
DAL
Draft rights to Vsevolod Ishchenko (No. 56)
LAL
Cash considerations
DET
Draft rights to Ugonna Onyenso (No. 53)
NY
Cash considerations
HOU
Cash considerations
LAC
Draft rights to Nick Martinelli (No. 55)
HOU
Draft rights to Bruce Thornton (No. 31) · Draft rights to Nick Martinelli (No. 55)
NY
Draft rights to Jack Kayil (No. 39) · Draft rights to Ugonna Onyenso (No. 53) · Draft rights to Mojave King (2023 No. 47) · 2029 SAC second-round pick
MIA
Draft rights to Ryan Conwell (No. 37)
OKC
Draft rights to Otega Oweh (No. 41) · Cash considerations
MIL
Draft rights to Malique Lewis (No. 60) (from Washington)
ORL
Draft rights to Izaiyah Nelson (No. 51) (from Washington) · Cash considerations (from Milwaukee)
WSH
Draft rights to Felix Okpara (No. 46) (from Orlando)
MEM
Kyle Anderson · Walter Clayton Jr. · Taylor Hendricks · Georges Niang · 2027 LAL protected first-round pick · 2027 first-round pick · 2031 PHX first-round pick
UTAH
Jaren Jackson Jr. · John Konchar · Jock Landale · Vince Williams Jr.
CHI
Mike Conley Jr. (from Minnesota) · Jaden Ivey (from Detroit)
DET
Kevin Huerter (from Chicago) · Dario Šarić (from Chicago) · 2026 MIN protected first-round swap right (from Minnesota)
